Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of AMR burden from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts until 2050. It estimates deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens and 84 pathogen-drug combinations across 204 countries. Data from multiple sources, including hospital records and microbiology studies, were used to model AMR burden, even in locations with no data. In 2021, AMR was linked to 4.71 million deaths, with 1.14 million directly attributable to it. Trends show a decrease in AMR deaths among children under 5 but an increase among adults over 70. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria showed significant increases in associated deaths. Forecasts predict 1.91 million AMR-attributable deaths and 8.22 million AMR-associated deaths by 2050, with the highest rates in South Asia and Latin America. The study highlights the importance of infection prevention, vaccination, and appropriate antibiotic use. It also emphasizes the need for new antibiotics and better healthcare to reduce future AMR deaths. Effective interventions could avert millions of deaths by 2050, particularly among older adults.
The Lancet. 2024 Sep 28;404(10459):1199-226.